An Election Prediction


Okay, I am going to go out on a limb and say that Donald Trump can’t possibly win the presidency. I will go even further: If Trump wins the election and becomes President, I will fly to Jerusalem and walk down Ben Yehuda Street wearing nothing but a Palestinian flag.  Anybody who wonders why I am so confident that Trump will lose the election has either been sleeping or watching Fox News.

Trump is by now so well defined as an impulsive and unstable mental case that an overwhelming majority of Americans, including sentient Republicans, shudder at the thought of his hands being anywhere near the nuclear codes.

Trump is losing high-level Republican supporters faster than a slashed tire loses air.  He can’t come up fast enough with denigrating nicknames for all the Republicans who have openly denounced him.   The cherry on the Trump denunciation cake is a letter signed by 50 Republican—I repeat, Republican— security experts warning that Trump is unfit to be commander-in-chief.

The letter says that Trump “lacks the character, values and experience to be president” and “would put at risk our country’s national security and well-being.” It further asserts that Trump would weaken the United States’ moral authority and questions his knowledge of and belief in the Constitution. Trump has of course dismissed the signers of the letter as establishment insiders who would love to work for him, but he doesn’t want them. The term “insiders” is not exactly a damning epithet for national security experts.

Soon the only Americans who will feel safe with the prospect of Trump in the White House will be twisted little men in semen-stained trench coats who enjoy watching snuff movies.

Early on after Trump insulted his way to victory in the Republican primaries and everybody was expecting him to pivot toward the general election and start to sound normal, some Democrats worried that maybe a another terrorist attack on American soil could change the dynamics and give Trump, as the tough-guy law-and-order candidate, a big edge. Now, of course, we realize that such an attack would serve only to strengthen the fear of having an unhinged wacko in charge during a crisis.

There is evidence that Trump may not even really want to be President, at least not in the sense of having to do the actual work of being President. Ohio Governor John Kasich—one of Trump’s most vociferous Republican detractors—has confirmed reports that Trump’s son Eric approached him with the proposal that if Kasich accepted the VP spot, he would be in charge of domestic and foreign affairs. That’s pretty much everything.  Kasich, who probably found the prospect of running the country while Trump held impromptu press conferences to mock him less than enticing, declined.

The report of the VP offer to Kasich has fueled speculation that maybe the insanity part is an act and that Trump is desperately trying to sabotage his own campaign by scaring people into not voting for him.  He has started to float the notion that the election will be rigged, which could be a prelude to dropping out of the race or, more likely, anticipating an excuse for losing.

When Trump does lose, probably in a landslide, he may well take the Republican Party down with him. Then American conservatives will be forced to rebuild a reasonable center-right party minus the populist fury and racism. The disillusioned and marginalized Trump voters can join white nationalists and other malcontents and start hiding their guns. The rest of us can enjoy watching Trump explain how the election was rigged.

8 thoughts on “An Election Prediction

  1. Good to see you back at your desk Alan. A great analysis of the Volkswagen full of republican clowns rushing towards the cliff edge. I think most people now are just watching Trump because they don’t want to miss the implosion. Almost like reality tv…


  2. At first I thought, “Oh just another anti-Trump rant” …… but then by sentence 2 and beyond, Alan shows his true colours as an excellent analyst and writer….. I’m keeping a copy of this one! ….. Keep it up, my friend!


  3. Talked to two young man while in Greenland. They were flying a small plane from South Africa to Florida. One will be voting for Trump because he does not trust Hillary. Unfortunately, that may be in many cases or they will not vote at all.


    1. I suspect a lot of anti-Hillary sentiment is sexist. She probably suffers more from sexism than Obama suffered from racism. Of course she has her flaws, but they’re nothing compared to Trump’s insane blathering. He is a real threat to democracy. Surely a majority of the American electorate will reject him.


  4. A new theory gaining credence is that Trump is setting himself up to head a new media channel that will cater to conspiracy theorists, white supremacists and others who operate under the “alt right” banner. He’ll have a ready-made core of support that will form, if not a new political party by itself, a powerful political movement.

    Regardless of whether Trump wins or loses, we could be seeing the birth of a new and very destructive force in U.S. society.


  5. The views have long been there. Trump simply has the ability to unify and amplify these for his own purpose — which is feeding his own pathological narcissism. He’s not really capable of understanding what harm could result from his followers actions. To Trump, its not the action itself that is important, it is the fact that he can cause actions among others.


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